"The History of the Prediction Paradox," presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Society for the History of the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Akron, OH (May 10, 1970)
نویسنده
چکیده
We will trace today the history of the prediction paradox from Professor Oskar Morgenstern's first rigorous formulation up to the present. The prediction paradox is defined for that situation where an infinite series of reciprocally conjectural reactions and counter-reactions between two or more actors occurs. These reactions occur when the calculation of the outcomes of one agent's future behavior includes expectations of the future behavior of other actors, and vice versa./1/
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